Foreign workers seeking employment in the U.S. experienced unprecedented success in securing H-1B visas during the 2024 fiscal year, with over 97% of applications gaining approval, according to the National Foundation for American Policy. This near-perfect approval rate marks the second-highest level in over a decade. However, immigration advocates warn that this trend may face significant changes if President-elect Donald Trump reinstates restrictive visa policies from his previous administration. Such a shift could profoundly impact U.S. businesses and institutions that heavily depend on skilled foreign workers, particularly those from India.
Sharvari Dalal-Dheini, senior director of government relations for the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA), and a former attorney with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), voiced concerns about the challenges ahead. “It’s likely to become harder and more complicated to get applications approved,” she stated, reflecting on the potential return of stringent measures.
A contentious program under scrutiny
The H-1B visa program, established in 1990, allows U.S. employers to hire foreign professionals in fields like technology, engineering, and healthcare. Each year, 85,000 visas are issued through a lottery system, with Indian nationals consistently receiving more than 70% of these positions, followed by workers from China.
Proponents of the program argue that it helps the U.S. attract world-class talent and address critical workforce shortages. A 2016 study by the National Foundation for American Policy found that almost a quarter of U.S. businesses had founders who first arrived as international students, underscoring the program’s contribution to innovation and economic growth.
However, critics contend that the program has been misused by companies, leading to the displacement of American workers. One of the most notable controversies involved Disney, which faced backlash a decade ago after laying off hundreds of American employees and allegedly requiring them to train their foreign replacements. Although Disney denied wrongdoing and avoided legal consequences, the incident became a rallying point for anti-immigration advocates.
Ira Mehlman, media director for the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), has been vocal about the perceived exploitation of the system. “There are plenty of tech workers available here in the U.S.,” Mehlman argued, suggesting that companies should prioritize hiring American citizens. He claimed that the program has shifted away from its original intent as a temporary worker initiative and is now being used as a pathway to permanent residency for foreign workers.
“This should be a temporary program, where workers come for a limited time and then return home,” Mehlman added. Many Republican lawmakers, along with Trump himself, have echoed similar criticisms, with Trump campaigning in 2016 on a platform to overhaul or eliminate the program.
The Trump administration’s past impact on H-1B visas
During Trump’s first term, his administration implemented a series of measures that made it more difficult for companies to secure H-1B visas. These included stricter qualification and salary requirements, increased workplace inspections, and additional evidence demands for applicants. Some visas were approved for only one year instead of the typical three, and automatic extensions were denied in many cases.
The impact of these changes was evident in the visa rejection rates. Denial rates for new H-1B applications surged to 24% in 2018 and remained high at 21% in 2019 before dropping to 13% in 2020. These figures represented a significant departure from the Obama administration, during which fewer than 10% of applications were denied.
“What we witnessed during the Trump administration was essentially the dismantling of the H-1B system,” said Dalal-Dheini, who previously served as special counsel to USCIS.
Uncertainty surrounding Trump’s next steps
Although revising immigration regulations typically requires a lengthy process, immigration experts anticipate that Trump’s team may resort to tactics from his first administration to curtail the number of H-1B visas issued. Increased scrutiny by federal anti-fraud agents, for instance, could result in longer processing times and higher rejection rates.
Kathleen Campbell Walker, head of the immigration practice at Dickinson Wright and a former president of AILA, expressed concerns about the potential hurdles. “I’m worried that heightened scrutiny could make it even harder to get H-1B visa status approved,” she told reporters.
The direction of Trump’s immigration policies remains uncertain. While his campaign has emphasized a crackdown on undocumented immigrants, legal immigration programs like the H-1B visa could also face renewed restrictions, particularly with the involvement of immigration hardliners such as Stephen Miller, who will serve as Trump’s new deputy chief of staff.
However, there are conflicting signals about Trump’s stance on skilled immigration. He has previously floated the idea of granting residency permits to foreign students graduating from U.S. universities. Additionally, Elon Musk, a prominent Trump ally and a vocal supporter of the H-1B program, could play a role in influencing policy. Tesla, Musk’s company, hired 742 foreign workers on H-1B visas in 2024, ranking as the 16th-largest employer of visa holders in the U.S.
Walker expressed cautious optimism, noting that Musk’s influence might steer Trump toward a more supportive approach to the H-1B program. “I hope Musk can positively influence the administration’s perspective on the value of skilled foreign workers,” she said.
Balancing innovation and protectionism
The H-1B visa program has long been a contentious issue, with stakeholders divided over its impact on the U.S. economy. Supporters argue that foreign professionals play a vital role in maintaining the country’s competitive edge in technology and innovation. Critics, however, see it as a system that undercuts wages and job opportunities for American workers.
As Trump prepares to take office, the future of the program hangs in the balance. Any significant changes could have far-reaching consequences for industries that depend on foreign talent, as well as for the broader U.S. economy.
While some hope for a more balanced approach that preserves the program’s benefits while addressing valid concerns, others fear a return to the restrictive policies that characterized Trump’s first term. For now, businesses, immigration advocates, and foreign workers alike are bracing for what lies ahead.