Over four months ahead of the elections set for November 30, the ruling party in Honduras is experiencing an increase in public disapproval. The Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, governing since 2022, is being criticized by political opponents, businesses, and civil society groups. These entities accuse the party of attempting to manipulate the electoral process to maintain power despite a significant decline in polling figures.
Decrease in polling preferences and erosion of trust
Recent polls, such as those conducted by Pro Encuestas and TResearch, indicate that Rixi Moncada’s presidential candidacy has experienced a sustained decline. Initially positioned as the favorite, Moncada has been overtaken in the polls by nationalist Tito Asfura and liberal Salvador Nasralla, relegating her to third place.
Analysts point to a mix of factors for this downturn: accusations of corruption in public administration, internal discord within the ruling party, weak economic results, and an increasing public view of government management lacking transparency. The dwindling popular backing has aligned with a tougher political discourse from the executive branch and indications of institutional strain that have triggered warnings in different sectors.
Doubts regarding the election procedures and authority oversight
One of the main sources of controversy is the ruling party’s refusal to allow manual verification of votes, a common practice in previous elections that serves as a cross-checking mechanism for the digitization of results. The opposition and independent organizations warn that eliminating this review could facilitate irregularities and hinder citizen and international audits.
In addition, there have been reports of actions aimed at hindering the implementation of the Preliminary Election Results Transmission System (TREP), which is key to the transparency of the vote count. Tensions have intensified within the National Electoral Council (CNE) itself, where councilors such as Cosette López and Ana Paola Hall have denounced pressure and attempts to block their work.
Business associations and members of the opposition view these actions as a component of an approach to solidify institutional command over the election process, restrict external supervision, and ensure the ruling party flexibility in case of an electoral loss.
Claims of political biases and an atmosphere of dispute
La realización de una sesión del Foro de São Paulo en Tegucigalpa, con la presencia de delegaciones de gobiernos de izquierda de la región, impulsó nuevamente la discusión sobre las alianzas internacionales del partido LIBRE. Voces críticas señalaron que estos vínculos con el eje Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua podrían estar dirigidos a emular modelos de gobernanza que favorecen la acumulación de poder y limitan las oportunidades para la participación democrática.
At the same time, opponents such as the former president of the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (COHEP), Eduardo Facussé, have warned of the possible implementation of a “Venezuela Plan” aimed at generating institutional instability, induced protests, and administrative blockades that would hinder a transition of government.
According to these allegations, groups affiliated with the ruling party have carried out disruptive actions in key spaces such as the National Congress and the CNE, in a dynamic that could contribute to eroding the credibility of the electoral process and intensifying political polarization in the country.
An unpredictable situation before a critical election
With an increasingly fragmented electoral landscape and a ruling party losing ground in public opinion, Honduras is heading toward elections marked by mistrust, institutional tension, and questioning of the rules of democracy.
Numerous groups from civil society, business communities, and political figures have emphasized the necessity for strong international oversight and systems to ensure the openness and integrity of the election process.
The current situation exposes not only the fragility of the democratic consensus in the country, but also the difficulty of channeling political competition within stable institutional margins, in a context of growing citizen disaffection and distrust of state institutions.