Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico has warned that his country may retaliate against Ukraine following Kyiv’s decision to halt the transit of Russian gas through its territory. The move has escalated tensions between the two neighbors and added a new dimension to the already fraught relationship between Ukraine and some European Union member states.
In a video message posted on Facebook on Thursday, Fico accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of “sabotage” after Ukraine followed through on its New Year’s Day promise to stop Russian gas flows to Europe. The decision marked the expiration of a key transit deal with Moscow, which Zelensky described as “one of Moscow’s greatest defeats.”
Fico, however, criticized the move’s repercussions for Slovakia and Europe, calling it a “drastic” blow to the European Union while claiming it would have little impact on Russia. He warned that his government is prepared to reduce support for Ukraine in response, including cutting electricity exports to the war-torn country and significantly scaling back aid to Ukrainian refugees residing in Slovakia.
“We are ready to debate and agree in the coalition on halting supplies of electricity and on significantly lowering support for Ukrainian citizens in Slovakia,” Fico said. He added that Slovakia’s ruling coalition would assess options after a delegation discusses the situation with EU leaders in Brussels next week.
Slovakia has been a key electricity supplier to Ukraine, exporting 2.4 million megawatt hours in the first 11 months of 2024, according to data from the country’s grid operator cited by Reuters. These exports have been critical in helping Ukraine cope with energy shortages caused by Russian attacks on its infrastructure. Reducing or halting this support would deal yet another blow to Ukraine as it struggles to maintain essential services during the ongoing war.
Fico also pointed to the financial losses Slovakia could face due to Ukraine’s decision to end gas transit. “The only alternative for a sovereign Slovakia is the renewal of transit or demanding compensation mechanisms to replace the nearly 500 million euros in lost public finances,” he said.
Growing tensions in EU-Ukraine relations
The gas transit dispute comes amid a broader cooling of relations between Kyiv and Bratislava. Fico’s government, which returned to power in 2023, has taken a markedly different stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine compared to most European leaders. Slovakia has ended its military aid to Ukraine and pledged to block Ukraine’s NATO membership bid. Fico has also been vocal in his criticism of EU sanctions on Russia, arguing they harm European economies more than the Kremlin.
Fico has previously warned that the end of Russian gas flows through Ukraine would lead to higher energy prices across Europe. On Wednesday, he reiterated these concerns, stating that the fallout from Ukraine’s decision to halt the transit of Russian gas would be felt across the EU.
Ukraine, meanwhile, faces significant financial losses from its decision to end transit, with an estimated $800 million in annual revenue from Russian gas transit fees now lost. On the other hand, Russia’s state-owned energy giant Gazprom is expected to lose nearly $5 billion in gas sales annually, according to Reuters.
Fico’s stance on the issue has raised eyebrows in Brussels, particularly after his December visit to Moscow, where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The meeting was one of the few instances of an EU leader visiting the Kremlin since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
A divisive figure in Europe
Fico’s approach to Russia and Ukraine has increasingly isolated him within the European Union. While most EU leaders have continued to support Ukraine with military aid, sanctions on Russia, and humanitarian assistance, Fico has charted a different course, aligning with a more pro-Russian stance.
His government’s threats to reduce aid to Ukrainian refugees and cut electricity supplies come at a time when Ukraine is heavily reliant on European support to weather the humanitarian and economic crises caused by the war. Such measures could strain Slovakia’s relations with other EU member states, many of which remain steadfast in their support for Kyiv.
For now, the dispute over gas transit underscores the broader challenges facing the European Union as it navigates divisions among its member states over how best to respond to Russia’s aggression and support Ukraine during an increasingly protracted conflict. As Slovakia signals its willingness to retaliate against Ukraine, the EU will likely face pressure to mediate and prevent further fragmentation within its bloc.