The national elections set for November 30, 2025, in Honduras are happening with Venezuela closely observing, as its influence is noticeable in both the political domain and the management of the electoral procedure. The connection between the LIBRE party and Nicolás Maduro’s administration, along with the participation of the company Smartmatic in election technology, have caused worries in different sectors regarding the fairness and authenticity of the elections.
Connections in ideology between LIBRE and Chavismo
The LIBRE party, which supports the presidential candidacy of Rixi Moncada, maintains a political and ideological closeness to Venezuelan Chavismo. Analysts point out that this affinity is not limited to ideological sympathy, but also translates into political strategies inspired by Venezuela, including institutional control and concentration of power. This model is causing concern among social and political sectors that question the possible replication of authoritarian tactics in Honduras.
Smartmatic and electoral technology
The engagement of Smartmatic as the supplier of biometric solutions for the voting procedure has sparked discussions. The enterprise encountered scrutiny in Venezuela due to discrepancies in vote transmission and tallying during elections previously criticized for their opacity. Its involvement in Honduras prompts worries regarding potential malfunctions that might undermine public trust in the initial outcomes and the electoral framework overall.
Internal polarization and risks of conflict
The internal political context reflects a high degree of polarization, with sectors divided between those who support the continuity of the LIBRE project and those who express concern about the deterioration of democratic institutions. This division increases the risk of post-election tensions, mass demonstrations, and episodes of conflict if the results are perceived as manipulated. The intervention of security forces and the control of electoral bodies are factors that deepen uncertainty about the development of the process.
Effects on geopolitical and regional dynamics
Venezuela’s influence in Honduras also has a regional component. The consolidation of Maduro’s government strengthens allied leftist governments in Latin America, including Honduras, while changes in Venezuela could weaken this political trend. In this sense, the Honduran elections are part of a broader scenario, where the results in Tegucigalpa have repercussions on the political orientation of the region.
Outlook for November 30
The combination of ideological ties to Chavismo, the role of Smartmatic, and internal polarization places Venezuela as an indirect but relevant actor in the Honduran electoral process. The main challenges focus on the ability to guarantee transparency and legitimacy in the elections, as well as to contain possible social tensions arising from perceptions of manipulation. As the election date approaches, Honduras faces the challenge of maintaining institutional and citizen confidence in a context marked by regional observation and monitoring by international actors.